Global trade policies are changing faster than we can keep up

How on earth can we keep up with global trade policies when they are shifting so rapidly. China may have worked it out, writes Tom Pattinson

It’s pretty challenging to keep up to speed with the current pace of President’s Trump’s trade talks. His penchant for late night tweets, often shifting major trade policies at the stroke of a few keys, has kept not just commentators and journalists on their toes but also global leaders. Presidents, dictators, friends and foes – few have any idea what the US President might do next and, therefore, the global ramifications his actions might cause.

Just last month, economist Andrew Collier wrote for FOCUS about the US-China trade war. The preceding weeks have already made it look vastly outdated.

To look at just some of the events of the last weeks: Chinese tech company ZTE were first blacklisted from America after being accused of being a threat to American state security and in breach of US embargoes. Days later, Trump then pledged to save the company from going under. The cost to the American supply chain was the reason given for Trump’s change of mind, but America’s reliance on China for support in negotiations with North Korea likely also proved significant.

“Trump accused Xi of being a world class poker player, perhaps he is finally realising that it’s not the USA that has the best hand”

Talks with North Korea’s leader Kim Jung Un were put on hold again last month after he accused American politicians of threatening behaviour when they compared the North Korean situation to that of Libya last decade. Commentators have suggested however that it was President Xi who encouraged Kim to take a harder stance following a meeting between the two Asian leaders in Dalian last month.

Is China, in fact, pulling the strings behind Kim’s actions?  There are certainly advantages if they can play a role in determining how talks play out between the US and North Korea. China are happy to use North Korea as a bargaining chip and then utilise this as leverage with America when it comes to their own negotiations – giving themselves better terms on trade deals for example.

Combining trade deals and politics has traditionally been avoided for exactly this reason. Dealing trade for trade is one thing but trade for politics is another. It also is something that is new to President Trump but something China is well versed in. Last month, Trump accused Xi of being “a world-class poker player” – perhaps he is realising that it’s not the USA that is holding the best hand.